TAPI- the acronym for Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India- is a gas pipeline project that can have long-term implications for Asia or simply be an example of a profitable short-term friendship.
Considering the historical past of at least two of these nations - Pakistan and India - the TAPI Pipeline Project, is at the very least, a curiosity. Odds are, not many people would naturally partner these nations in high-risk projects that require long-term cooperation. Leadership in Asia that brings together uncomfortable foes, or at best, even nations that barely get along, has not been plentiful in the past. But the world order is changing and Asia has no choice but to change with it. As the world’s most populous continent, and also one that is in great need of a more equitable distribution of wealth and resources, it is indeed high time that leaders of nations big and small, convene for a conversation about one of the most crucial aspects of sustainable development - energy. What is commendable is that despite chequered past histories, these four nations see the way forwards, to a better expression of their joint potential.
It is estimated that more than USD 250 billion annually will be devoted to the construction of renewable energy production in Asia. This number accounts for about two-thirds of Asia’s total power investment. And it is also anticipated that by 2030, carbon-free sources of energy will ensure one-third of Asia’s electricity supply, with solar power playing a starring role.
In light of these facts, it is perhaps only natural that in the interest of long-term sustainable development and indeed survival of a nation, a green flag has set this herculean project into motion. A classic example of a Public-Private Partnership (PPP) the TAPI Project will one day, export up to 33 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas annually, through a 1800 kilometre long pipeline from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. For President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, this is a professional and personal achievement as he fights for popularity on the international arena, in the face of a barrage of criticism over his dictatorial hold over Turkmenistan. Bad press aside, there is clearly no stopping Turkmenistan’s head of state, who has reached out to his Asian partners, knowing that the pipeline is a conduit of mutual benefit for the nations involved.
Turkmenistan has the fourth largest reserve of natural gas resources in the world and this project will highlight its capacity and its technical know-how as well as add some favourable colour to a criticised political machine. This project is the ultimate symbol of regional cooperation for all these countries that are not exactly known to be consistent allies in some areas. The Central Asia Regional Cooperation (CAREC) body identifies energy as a priority sector and this project will reduce dependence on traditional oil resources when it comes into play. Enhanced energy trading between these four nations may be a start of a new economic dawn for them as well.
It is estimated that more than USD 250 billion annually will be devoted to the construction of renewable energy production in Asia. This number accounts for about two-thirds of Asia’s total power investment.
While there were many hurdles to the project going through, the meetings on March 15, 2015 seem to have produced some progress. Turkmenistan had certain objections to the financing of the pipeline’s construction earlier but these were resolved when the government came to an agreement, in an effort to diversify its gas market. Russia has sharply reduced and almost ceased its import of natural gas and so China became Turkmenistan’s only big export market. But the country is uncomfortable about its dependence on Beijing and one of the key reasons for the conception of the TAPI project was the need to quickly diversify gas exports.
The spanner in the works for the project remained unspoken until recently. The geographical route of the pipeline passes through Kandahar province in Afghanistan and Quetta in Pakistan, which are known Taliban strongholds. This has been a major factor in the considerable slowdown of the project, causing the price tag to rise by $2.5 billion. Construction on the TAPI project is slated to begin in 2015 and will be operational by 2018, according to the Steering Committee’s report earlier in 2015.
Nawaz Sharif, Prime Minister of Pakistan visited Ashgabat in May 2015 and assured the Turkmen leadership of accelerated cooperation and prioritised fast-tracking of the project, deeming it to be a game-changer for all the nations involved.
For India too, visits have occurred and more are imminent. But for India, it’s not just about gas. This project is an important statement for India in respect of breaking a piece off from the Sino-Russian hegemony that seems to be emerging, and is a fear factor among many Asian nations. This project would help India to reshape regional diplomacy in Central Asia, open new markets of expansion with Central Asian nations, introduce rail connectivity between Central Asia and India and deepen bilateral economic participation.
For Turkmenistan, it is clearly a power numbers game. President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov is pulling out all the stops to achieve his goal of doubling Turkmenistan’s natural gas production by 2020, and raising to 250 bcm by 2030.
It is patently obvious that bad politics and current dangers are no barrier to real economic progress when leaders of previously unconnected nations find a common path to progress and sustainable development
(We will update this story when further progress is reported on the TAPI Pipeline Project)