Russia’s prospects are diminishing with each passing sanction, and with them go also the nation’s long-held regional alliances. This reality is challenging the political leanings of Central Asia.

Resource-rich Central Asia is in the throes of a protracted continental battle. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan collectively represent a hotbed of mining activity which has drawn the interest of larger nations for decades. As former members of the Soviet Union, these Central Asian nations remain largely tied to Russia. With the rouble in freefall however, Northern Asia’s leadership now face a new opportunity for rediscovery, based on a shifting geopolitical landscape.

Central Asia as a region ranks among the top ten producers of chrome, copper, gold, iron, lead, silver, uranium and zinc with additionally significant aluminium, coal and oil yields. Sandwiched geographically between Russia and China, the region also finds itself slotted politically amidst two nations undergoing significantly contrasting trajectories.

Though China is keen to continue asserting its dominance along its eastern maritime borders, the country has additionally found value in exploring in the opposite direction. In aggressive pursuit of the energy its massive population requires the country has found itself increasingly investing in the MENA region. Yet the waning popularity of Russian influence, due to the devastation international sanctions have levied against the Russian economy, has encouraged the Chinese to consider the proximity of Central Asia to the mainland.

Central Asia as a region ranks among the top ten producers of chrome, copper, gold, iron, lead, silver, uranium and zinc with additionally significant aluminium, coal and oil yields.

While each Central Asian nation contains a uniqueness which allows for a certain diversity among the countries, the leadership’s decisions are often in step with one another. This has allowed the group to appear as a region all its own. While Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are still only tiptoeing towards making a commitment, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Tajikistan are either members of the World Trade Organization or finalising their application. Such uniformity makes clear that Central Asian leadership is interested in forming some semblance of an alliance, even if unofficial. As a result, the direction the region chooses to proceed when opting for either a continued closeness with Russia or by forging new arrangements elsewhere, will more than likely be executed in unison.

The confidence in remaining loyal to Russia may be weakening, but the bond forged by Central Asia with the former Soviet regime won’t be severed overnight. The citizenry of each Central Asian nation have benefitted from the remittances of expatriates working in Russia for decades. The Russian currency has tumbled by as much as 100% in less than two years however, and has likewise affected the aforementioned dependents. This spells a ripe opportunity for a competing nation to fill the void and China’s role may prove a welcome balance due to the nature of each nation’s leadership.

The authoritarian stylings of the governments of Russia, China and Central Asia provide a shared solution which analysts suspect will provide the latter with a middle ground. Central Asian leadership could reap massive benefits whilst not losing any friends by maintaining its long held ties with Russia, whilst encouraging Chinese investment.